The Surf’s Up Surf Report :
It’s really small right now, barely rideable with a cool breeze around 10 mph. Northern spots will be small until tomorrow afternoon.
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Tag Archives: June
Surf Forecast: For Tuesday & Wednesday, June 06 & 07, 2017
The environment is starting to heat up. This rain and thunderstorm activity appears to be associated with a cold front and tropical low (pictured above). The tropical like weather will continue over the next few days, and bring southwest winds. Tuesday our surf comes up. SWAN has it at 4-5 feet by 3pm. By evening on Tuesday a solid southwest flow will be in place.
The winds will only be around 15 knots, but there is a lot of fetch. Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening will be in the 4-5 foot seas range. West Florida water temperatures are at 84°, and rain chances at 70%. The mornings and evenings will be the time to surf.
Tropical Weather Forecast: The Klotzbach Report
Phil Klotzbach and Michael Bell published their annual Hurricane season forecast on April 6th. The report tells us what to expect for the upcoming Atlantic basin hurricane season starting on June 1st. Through their comprehensive statistical modeling, a method that combines four different statistical models and uses hindsight verification, they generated a hurricane season output (the forecast) that’s considered the gold standard of hurricane forecasting. From their model they are able to tell us, with a reasonable degree of reliability, how much activity we’ll see during this hurricane season. As with most seasons and any statistical procedure, the impact of variable events like the heating of the Pacific (El Nino) presents some uncertainty. A strong El Nino could increase the likelihood of tropical activity. Currently, the equatorial Pacific is in the neutral El Nino state, and is expected to warm to a weak El Nino by the peak of the hurricane season. In the report Dr. Klotzbach suggests that because the tropical Atlantic has cooled considerably over the past month, and because the far north Atlantic is relatively cold, we can expect a below average hurricane season.
The numbers:
11 named storms
50 named storm days
4 hurricanes
16 hurricane days
2 major hurricanes
4 major hurricane days
And as you may know, it’s common for the gulf to get a solid little storm right at the beginning of the season, often in June! We may even get another epic swell like the one during Hurricane Hermine last September.
