Category Archives: Tropical

Tropical Storm Philippe: Will this be the last tropical system of Hurricane Season 2017?

We still have a month left of the hurricane season, however cyclone formation markedly slows after cold fronts consistently start moving across Florida like this and the last one did.  It looks like tropical storm Philippe could be the last named tropical system of Hurricane Season 2017.  This mutant storm is crossing over Cuba tonight.  It’s expected to travel up the east coast of Florida over the open waters of the Atlantic. The storm is a mutant because it was found to have three vorticity centers making up the storm.  It’s being characterized as an elongated center.  The 11pm NOAA discussion pointed out that one convection center was found over the Bahamas and the other over the southeastern gulf.  The intensity at that time was 35knots, and isn’t expected to strengthen beyond a tropical storm. The storm is primarily producing increased moisture in the atmosphere, but mild increases in wind strength could be seen across southern Florida. The cold front moving across the state will interact with Philippe overnight in a way that will begin to drive the moisture and convection centers of the storm back out into the Atlantic and up the eastern seaboard.

Nate’s On His Way

Tropical Storm Nate is just south of the Yucatan Peninsula . It’s traveling at 21 mph and has maximum sustained winds at 50 mph. So this tells us that it’s a super fast moving storm and that there are significant winds associated with the storm. The storm tracks into the gulf tomorrow morning and blasts through in only a day, as smaller storms often do. The wind direction and placement tomorrow morning by 6am down in the Yukatan channel looks conducive for the development of surf, and only gets better from there. We can expect the swell to start filling in sometime mid-day or early afternoon tomorrow. There should be really fun surf. At the swells peak on Sunday the surf could get up to head high with gusty winds at times. The close proximity of the storm and strength of the winds offshore favor solid surf.

GFS Run (noon Fri), Showing 6am Sat thru Noon Sun:

Hurricane Irma West Florida Surf Forecast

Hurricane Irma moving through could generate really fun swell. It’s now 11 at night.  Some of the most severe weather we’ll see through the next three or four hours as the storm’s eye moves past the area.  This category 2 hurricane is currently on a track toward Continue reading Hurricane Irma West Florida Surf Forecast

Hurricane Irma GFS Forecast Track: Florida In The Path of Destruction

Major Hurricane Irma is currently a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph, with even higher gusts according to NOAA. Irma is expected to maintain its intensity for the next 5 days, if not strengthen. The ocean’s heat increases along its path, mid-level moisture is abundant, and verticle shear is low. 5 days out, as Irma approaches Florida it’s still expected to be a category 3, a very big storm.

Also, check this out: Part 2 of Hurricane Irma (Wednesday) and preparing for the storm.

Continue reading Hurricane Irma GFS Forecast Track: Florida In The Path of Destruction

Harvey: A Major Hurricane Before Landfall

Less than 24 hours ago Harvey had a tropical storm peak intensity outlook.  A recent reconnaissance flight measured Harvey, only to determine he’s become deadly impressive.  Expected to make landfall in Texas on Friday evening.  Harvey now has a 15-20 nautical mile wide eye with winds of 55knots and a pressure at 982millibars.  Harvey is expected to move Continue reading Harvey: A Major Hurricane Before Landfall

Gulf Coast Surf Forecast: Tropical Strom Harvey Remnants

What was Tropical Storm Harvey no longer has a closed center of circulation and is considered a tropical wave.  It’s currently a 1008 mb low, which means the low associated with the wave isn’t very strong.  It’s headed across Central America tonight. After moving over open waters of the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday Continue reading Gulf Coast Surf Forecast: Tropical Strom Harvey Remnants