The environment is starting to heat up. This rain and thunderstorm activity appears to be associated with a cold front and tropical low (pictured above). The tropical like weather will continue over the next few days, and bring southwest winds. Tuesday our surf comes up. SWAN has it at 4-5 feet by 3pm. By evening on Tuesday a solid southwest flow will be in place.
The winds will only be around 15 knots, but there is a lot of fetch. Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening will be in the 4-5 foot seas range. West Florida water temperatures are at 84°, and rain chances at 70%. The mornings and evenings will be the time to surf.