The pattern over by Africa seems to have changed, just slightly, within the past couple days. The storms moving off the peninsulaaren’t getting sheared completely apart (the one headed towards us for example). The systems are maintaining at least some organization as they move off the continent.
An interesting thing to note: We are in a very long streak of hurricane-less-ness in the Gulf of Mexico. The gulf hasn’t seen a hurricane since 2013. It’s quite unusual to go this long without seeing some kind of hurricane move through the gulf. Some history of storms through the gulf: Gulf Hurricane History
Over the past 10 years we’ve seen:
2004: Ivan, Charley
2005: Cindy, Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Stan
2006: none
2007: Dean, Humberto, Lorenzo,
2008: Dolly, Gustav, Ike
2009: Ida
2010: Alex, Karl, Paula
2011: Nate
2012: Isaac
2013: Ingrid
2014: none
2015: none
2016: …to be determined
Also, there is quite a bit of wind shear over the northwest Atlantic, which may help steer storms toward the gulf. This may be our season for a decent hurricane.
