Cold Front: The Forecast

This afternoon the clouds are beginning to fill the blue skies. Southeast winds will persist through the afternoon and overnight, but should transition to sideshore/onshore flow in the next day or two.  It is pretty clear we have moved into a wintertime pattern, wouldn’t you say?  The skies are forecast to be partly cloudy and scattered clouds during the day, each day, through the end of the work week.

The front arrives on Thursday just after noon.
cold-front-11-31-16

Swell
Tuesday: An evening south swell pulse should occur on Tuesday and Wednesday.  It should be around 3 foot at 4 seconds, possibly bigger from the south southwest.  It could be surf-able on a longboard, or a big fat buoyant board. Sideshore winds.
Wednesday: It is possible 4-5 foot southwest swell reaches the beaches in the evening. Onshore winds.
Thursday:  The winds go slack.  There may be a bit of groundswell.  It is still a bit difficult to tell what the quality of surf will be on Thursday at this point. On Thursday the swell is swinging around from southwest to northwest. Weather can be unpredictable.  Onshore winds.
Friday:  On Friday the front has passed and small 3-4 foot northwest swell is headed toward the coast.  Again we will be looking at small, probably barely rideable surf. Offshore winds.

clearwater-beach-tides-by-noaa-11-28-16
Clearwater Beach 11.29 & 11.30 by noaa

The best time of day will vary, and be dependent on your spot’s ideal tidal height and the tidal flow.

Temps:
Before the front the humidity goes up a bit, so it may feel muggier, but the temps don’t change more than a degree. After the front, the air temps drop about 5 degrees overall from around 80° to around 75°.  Overnight the temps may drop into the upper 50s, a change of only about three or four degrees.  These temperature changes will only hold for a day or two after the front.  It isn’t a powerful enough front to drastically cool things off for any extended period of time.

Water:
The water is 67°.  It is even cooler than the last front, by a degree or two.  It may drop another degree after the front,

Sunrise: ~7am
Sunset: ~5:30pm

Discussion
There won’t be much change from this one, aside from the overcast skies. The amount of west swell is going to play a role in how much fun the surf gets. Overall there isn’t much wind.  Throughout the entire pre and post frontal window the wind doesn’t get much stronger than 15 knots, which regularly equates to small barely rideable slop. It could get fun at times, and it is certainly worth a trip to the beach.

 

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