The winds have already increased before the arrival of the upcoming cold front. Surf’s up on Monday right before dark; 5ft@6sec northwest swell will be filling in. It will be around chest high at the key, waist-chest high with longer rides at honeymoon with semi-offshore winds. We’ll have to watch for the precise north wind shift to see when honeymoon goes offshore. A cold blast of air is following this cold front. The water is already in the upper 50s, and the front will be bringing the water and air temps down again. Monday evening will be the warmest time to surf if you want to surf this next cold front, but also the choppiest. The first hour when the swell starts filling in is usually really fun! Tuesday morning the surf will continue. The winds will be offshore at certain spots. Tuesday morning looks like a fun little cleanup. The temperatures will be dropping into the fourties by Wednesday morning.
Another strong front comes roaring through on Wednesday afternoon overnight into Thursday bringing more January/February cold weather. The surf comes up on Wednesday evening and first thing Thursday morning. Our dew points and humidity are extremely low today (51% in East Lake).
This cold front could bring our temperatures down near freezing on Thursday morning before dawn. Is this cold blast going to be enough to drop the water temperatures into the upper 40’s? It’s not uncommon to see the water fall into the 40s in February. After high pressure and cold air moved in during the last cold front I watched the water temperature drop from 59°F to 53° at the Clearwater Beach weather station. That’s six degrees almost overnight. Currently the water is at a chilly 54 degrees. If we see another 6 degree drop we’ll be looking at icy 48 degree water. Get out your 4 mil wetsuits, ’cause it’s cold!
Last winter the water barely cracked 70 degrees, with only one cold front bringing the water to 65°F. That was extremely unusual. It was a very strong el nino winter pattern where right up until the end of December it felt almost like summer. This winter it’s a, quote un quote, la nina pattern. Really it’s just the regular winter pattern. This winter there’s been a steady falling trend in the water temperature from early Fall through Winter. We’re now in the middle of January with water in the mid 50s. The chart below will show you how the water temperatures have steadily fluctuated on a cooling trend up to today.
In Florida every day is a beautiful day it seems. Years ago one of the local newspapers would give out free newspapers on days that weren’t bright and sunny days. Living in such a beautiful place, I need some cold gnarly weather to break up the monotony of everyday perfection and warmth, which is why this colder time of year is my absolute favorite time of year.
Just like the recent nor’easter, the cold front over northern Texas is headed for the Gulf of Mexico. Despite this system heading right for us, the trend for this upcoming cold front is actaully a warming trend, and the storm won’t be impacting the temperatures at all. This low will be entering into the gulf near Floribama, the Florida panhandle area, then continue on its southerly track through the gulf. I’m expecting the low to be completely gone by the time it nears the north-western tip of Cuba on Wednesday evening. As this storm moves through the gulf it’s likely to kick up a west swell in response to a tightening pressure gradient along the frontal boundary. What cooler air there is behind the cold front won’t be reaching the Florida coast. Expect slightly more humid south flow to be drawn towards us. The warming trend will continue through the surf on Tuesday afternoon. The water and air temperatures are warming, however the water will still be very cold. This low pressure cold front will be another fun little swell before the significant wavemaker next weekend.
The surf is on the rise this morning. It looks like a longboard wave at the moment from the buoys, but the cams are suggesting otherwise. The wind is from the North, but the waves appear to be a west or west southwest swell. The buoys are only pinging around 3 feet @ 5 seconds, but the beaches are lit up with whitewater. It could be just slighter better than the buoy readings are suggesting. The water is 65 this morning. The wind is likely to shift to the north for a while after this pulse of swell, and before the secondary swell fills in on Thursday and Friday. While the wind is from the north the swell will drop some, but is likely to linger as a small North swell until later in the week. The tides for today and the upcoming swell on Thursday and Friday are morning/midday incoming tides. Check your beaches tides for the specific times. With air in the upper 50s, low 60s and water at 65 degrees the conditions may still be comfortable in the three mil today. So, if your not too hung over, you’ve got a big floaty board, and nothing to do, you can always head down to the the beach and go surfing.
The next front is just on our doorstep, and the only good wave maker for the next 7 days. On Tuesday afternoon the surf comes up accompanied by 20 knot winds straight out of the west. The temperatures will actually be rising into the mid 70s during the day on Tuesday, but after the west northwest winds arrive the temperatures will be Continue reading Weather Forecast: Two cold fronts in the next six days.
Mid-day Friday the surf comes up with the arrival of a significant cold front. Surf will start filling in as the west southwest winds across the middle gulf increase prior to the arrival of the frontal boundary. This should be a fun southy, waist high or better before the front. As early as noon we could be able to surf from all that southwest wind. The next morning, on Saturday, the northwest winds significantly increase in offshore waters. At the coast, surf will be in the head high plus range with lighter 15+ knot winds. Surf’s up all day on Saturday. Overnight the winds gust from the north, then switch northeast sometime before or right around sunrise. Sunday morning a small clean wave and strong side-offshore wind will remain.
The water temperature is currently around 71° in Clearwater, and has been there since the big cool down of the first cold front. The Fall/Winter pattern continues as temperatures cool again behind this significant cold front. Friday and Saturday we see a high just above 60°. Dawn patrollers and sunset gazers will feel things cool off with lows upwards of 49° in the overnight hours. There was a big full moon phase with strong tides, but we’re getting further away from those bigger tidal swings as you can see in the chart that takes us through Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
A low associated with a cold front is spinning through the gulf. The surf comes up tomorrow and Friday. It looks like a lot of southwest fetch in the gulf sending a southy into the beaches. Expect offshore southeast winds at the very beginning turning onshore as the low moves west over the state. It won’t be too much more than a longboard wave from this weak low pressure system. The weather will be kind of crummy with a significant increase in the possibility of rain. The high temperatures tomorrow and Friday are around 75°.